Europe continues to build, destroy green spaces, and become increasingly grey.
Europe is moving from green to grey at a fast pace. It is constantly losing fragments of nature, destroying entire ecosystems, and reducing its biodiversity. Every year, 1,500 square kilometres of natural or agricultural land are converted into built-up areas.
In an original and pioneering investigation, 41 journalists and researchers from 11 countries – including the authors of this series – worked on the Green to Grey project, launched by Arena for Journalism in Europe and the Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation (NRK).
The project originates from the scientific work of Zander Venter, a researcher at the Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), who developed a new methodology to measure nature loss across European environments. By combining satellite imagery, artificial intelligence analysis, and fieldwork, our investigation reveals the true extent of the destruction of natural ecosystems and farmland in Europe between 2018 and 2023.
We analysed a global land cover dataset produced by Google and the World Resources Institute, using a deep learning–based image recognition model. The algorithm identified millions of natural or agricultural areas that were built over between 2018 and 2023. Thanks to the participation of many journalists in the investigative consortium, we manually verified over 10,000 data points to enhance the model's accuracy and calculate estimates with associated margins of error. This process required over 500 hours of work.
To identify relevant case studies, we cross-referenced the built-up areas with European and national datasets on valuable natural zones, such as forests and wetlands, including those protected by local, national, or EU regulations. The data related to Italy are shown in the map below.
The results are alarming.
In just five years, the entire European region – covering 39 countries – destroyed an area of 9,000 square kilometres, equivalent to the size of Cyprus. Thanks to the adopted methodology, this estimate is 1.5 times higher than the one reported by the European Environment Agency. Previous estimates mainly relied on large-scale construction sites. In contrast, the method developed by NINA allows the detection of smaller developments, which, taken together, significantly contribute to the ongoing loss of nature.
Much of this destruction affects natural environments – forests, wetlands, and beaches – converted into roads, hotels, luxury resorts, and service centres. But the shift from green to grey also involves a substantial portion of farmland. In four out of five cases, new construction occurred in already inhabited areas, thereby contributing to what is known as urban sprawl. Most of it is due to the building of houses and roads.
The consequences are wide-ranging: reduced carbon absorption capacity, increased fragility in certain territories, higher hydrogeological risks, decreased water retention, and reduced protection against heatwaves. And in some cases, impacts also extend to local food production and food security.
In 2021, Europe adopted the “no net land take” (NNLT) target, setting 2050 as the deadline to reach land-use neutrality, with an interim goal of halving land take by 2035. Moreover, with the Nature Restoration Law, approved in 2024, Europe committed to a recovery plan to restore 20% of degraded ecosystems by 2030, with the long-term objective of complete restoration by 2050.
How do these goals align with the ongoing land consumption, which, according to our data, continues unabated across all countries, albeit with significant differences?
The data analysis methodology used in this investigation was collaboratively developed by Zander Venter (NINA) and Leopold Salzenstein (Arena) and is explained in detail on the original investigation website.
Would you like to help map land loss and generate increasingly accurate data?
Zander Venter, the NINA researcher, is launching a new global project to measure the destruction of forests, woodlands, and farmland. And he needs help from everyone. That’s why he has launched a citizen science initiative, which you can also join by using an app to map and verify data from your own area. You can find all the information here: https://www.nina.no/english/globalnatureloss
Credits
Green to Grey is an investigative data journalism project initiated by Arena for Journalism in Europe and the Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation, NRK. This is a cross-border collaboration between De Standaard (Belgium), Le Monde (France), Long Play (Finland), Die Zeit (Germany), Reporters United (Greece), FACTA (Italy), NRK (Norway), Gazeta Wyborcza (Poland), Datadista (Spain), The Black Sea (Turkey), and The Guardian (UK).
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) provided scientific expertise for the project.
The complete methodology is described by Léopold Salzenstein (Arena) and Zander Venter (NINA).
This investigation is supported by Journalismfund Europe and IJ4EU Investigative Journalism for Europe.
 |
 |
For all published stories, including those from other partners in the investigative consortium, go to: greentogrey.eu
